Early List of Breakout Candidates in 2024

Hitters

1. Jake Burger, 27, 3B, MIA

Burger had a unique ascension through amateur and MiLB propsect rankings, going undrafted out of high school before breaking out as a power hitting prospect during his sophomore season at Missouri State, slashing .349/.420/.689 with 21 long balls across 56 games. He built on that campaign with 22 homers in his junior campaign, leading to an 11th overall selection by the Chicago White Sox in the 2017 draft.

Strikeouts had long been an issue for Burger with a K rate north of 30% across parts of 3 seasons during his time on the south side of Chicago. Despite his impressive power numbers (25 HRs across 88 games with the Sox in 2023), he was sporting a near 32% K rate and CWS had seen enough, flipping him to Miami receiving left-handed pitching prospect Jake Eder in return.

Burger reached a new level with the Marlins after the deadline in 2023, cutting down on strikeouts significantly. He posted a slightly better than average 21.8% K rate with the fish, leading to a .303/.355/.505 slash line from August on. The sky's the limit for Burger if he can continue to put the bat on the ball - his hard hit rate in 2023 (40.9%) ranked inside the top 20 across all of baseball, ahead of players including Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Gunnar Henderson. He also ranked inside the top 10 in Brls/PA %, coming in at 7th in all of baseball.

While Burger does not offer much on the basepaths (1 career stolen base), he is a sneaky athlete, with a sprint speed ranking in the 67th percentile across the MLB (28 ft/sec). The Marlins do not run much, coming in at 25th out of 30th in team stolen bases, but perhaps they will give Burger a few more chances in 2024 given his above average sprint speed and MLB's new ruleset leading to more SBs. Nonetheless, look to Burger as a cheap source of HRs and RBIs in the middle of Miami's new and improved lineup, headlined by on-base machine Luis Arraez.

2. Spencer Torkelson, 24, 1B, DET

For quite some time, Torkelson was written off by many as a bust, going 1st overall out of Arizona State (.320/.440/.743 w/ 25 HRs in junior season) to a disappointing Detroit Tigers team who made more headlines for their failed signings/mistakes than their successes. That being said, the Tigers have possibly struck gold with a new and improved 2023 version of Torkelson.

The first half of the season looked more of the same for Torkelson, putting up a .228/.307/.402 slash line across 87 games, leading to a disappointing 94 WRC+. The second half of the season was a different story, as Torkelson posted an improved .238/.318/.498 slash line and a well above average 121 WRC+. Strikeouts have never been a huge issue for Torkelson, hovering around a 25% K rate throughout his career - nothing special by any means and below average, but certainly manageable for a middle of the order power bat.

Putting his 2023 campaign together, Torkelson launched 31 long balls and put up 94 RBIs, while finishing just outside the top 20 in hard hit rate at 39.8%. He also vastly improved his ISO and slugging numbers from 2022 (.117 -> .213 & .319 -> .446). While he probably won't do your team batting average any favors, it's certainly plausible to see him climb closer towards the league average if he continues to make strides in 2024.

For Torkelson's fantasy outlook, he ranks outside the top 100 (120) on ESPN's early look at 2024's ranking list for head-to-head leagues and clocks in as the 13th ranked first baseman. For a guy who has a real shot at breaking out and pushing for 40+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, seems worth a flier as a middle round 1B/Utility bat.

3. Seiya Suzuki, 29, OF, CHC

While one can argue 2023 already was a breakout campaign for Suzuki, I'd argue that he has the potential for higher highs across a full season and his breakout may take another step forward in 2024. The latest in a wave of Japanese stars making the transition to the MLB from the NPB, Suzuki signed with the Chicago Cubs on an $85m deal across 5 years following the 2021 season in which he posted a .317/.433/.639 slash line with 38 homers across 132 games for the Hiroshima Carps in Japan’s highest baseball league.

Suzuki had a solid rookie campaign in 2022, putting up a .262/.336/.433 slash line leading to a 116 WRC+. That being said, Suzuki missed 51 games due to injuries and became notorious as a streaky/borderline unreliable fantasy asset - his career got off to a terrific start, posting a monster 158 WRC+ in the first month of 2022, before coming back to earth with a well below average .211/.278/.338 slash line in May without a single HR, though some of this could likely be attributed to his left ring finger sprain, which was officially diagnosed on 5/27 leading to a month long IL stint.

2023 was a different story for Suzuki - he was mostly healthy, only missing 24 games. While he still had a streaky start to his season (163 WRC+ in May, 32 WRC+ in June), his numbers stabilized later in the season and he became a force to be reckoned with in the final 2 months of the season. His absurd .349/.405/.666 slash line put him amongst the league's best - if he can recreate even close to that sort of momentum in 2024, he could be a steal in all fantasy formats - ESPN currently rates Suzuki as the 94th best player and 24th best outfield heading into next season.

4. Wyatt Langford, 22, OF, TEX

Langford is the first player to appear on our list currently unranked. This could certainly change by opening day if Langford cracks the opening day roster, but nonetheless, Langford obliterated minor league pitching and reached AAA mere months after he was drafted with the 4th overall pick by the Texas Rangers in the recent 2023 draft.

Langford landed in Texas by way of the Florida Gators, where he raised his draft stock considerably posting a .373/..498/.784 line while matching up against some of the premier college pitching in the nation. Although he was seen as having a real chance at going #1 overall to the Pirates, they settled on Skenes and Langford fell to the Rangers at #4 who were thrilled to sign him to a team record $8m signing bonus. Given the unique draft year with a plethora of elite options in the top 5 picks, Langford could have gone #1 in most other years - he has legitimate superstar potential.

His career minor league slash line sits at a laughable .360/.480/.677 with 10 long balls in 44 games and more walks than strikeouts (36/34). He nearly earned himself an MLB call up towards the tail end of 2023, but Texas opted to give him the offseason to rest and begin training, where he will certainly earn an opportunity to compete for a starting outfield position in spring training come 2024. Barring injury, he seems like a lock to make his MLB debut in the first half of 2024.

While Langford primarily projects as a corner outfielder, some scouts believe he has the athletic ability to play CF in the bigs. The main obstacle for Langford earning fantasy relevance in 2024 is Texas’s crowded lineup/outfield, especially with the emergence of Evan Carter in the 2023 Postseason. That being said, Langford possesses all the tools necessary to compete at the highest level right now and I see him having a real shot at winning the ROY award in the AL. Keep your eye on him heading into spring training and stash him if given the opportunity.

5. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 26, 3B, PIT

Known primarily as a premier defender, many argued he deserved the NL Platinum Glove in 2023, Hayes made strides with the bat in 2023 as he posted career bests in BA (.271), SLG (.453), WRC+ (101), HR (15), and various other offensive categories.

Hayes had a slow start to his 2023 campaign, posting an unimpressive .262/.290/.393 slash line with only 4 long balls. Despite the slow start, Hayes caught fire over the final 2 months of the season, with a .299/.334/.539 slash line. If he can carry that momentum into 2024, he could emerge as a real offensive asset in addition to his already elite defensive game.

While a 101 WRC+ doesn’t pop off the page, it marks a significant increase in a proven top athlete in the league. His K rate has improved consistently each of his first 3 full seasons in the MLB (22 ->, 21.8 -> 19.8). He also ranks in the 93rd percentile in Avg Exit Velocity, as he rarely makes soft contact (10.2%) and ranks inside of the top 50 in hard hit rate (36.9%). As the 164th ranked H2H categories player and 14th ranked 3B, according to ESPN, Hayes could be a low risk high upside play in later rounds.

Additionally, Hayes possesses the ability to swipe bags, as he put up 20 SBs across only 136 back in 2022. That being said, he fell from the 64th to 43rd percentile in sprint speed from 2022 to 2023, which led to him only racking up 10 SBs in 2023 despite MLB’s new ruleset around pitch clock/pickoffs (possibly influenced by 2 IL stints to lower back inflammation). He likely won’t get back to 20+ per season, but he has the ability to pick one up here and there. 

Pitchers

1. Cole Ragans, 26, LHP, KC

Ragans was beginning to look like something of a lost cause in 2023, pitching to a 5.92 ERA (5.27 FIP) in 17 appearances out of the Rangers’ bullpen prior to being shipped to the Royals in the deal that brought Aroldis Chapman to Arlington. Ragans proved to be a revelation for KC, pitching to a 3.47 ERA (3.19 FIP) the rest of the way, including 12 games started. This performance earned Ragans an AL Pitcher of the Month nod in August, as he pitched to a 1.72 ERA with a ridiculous 53 K’s in 36 and ⅔ IP (36.6 K%). Look for Ragans to lead the way for KC’s rotation entering 2024.

Ragans’ breakout was due in part to the introduction of a new pitch to his arsenal, a traditional slider. During his time in Texas in the first half of 2023, Ragans relied heavily on his fastball (48.4%), while mixing in a cutter (14.7%), curveball (14.5%), and changeup (22.2%) as his offspeed offerings. After making the move to KC, Ragans dropped the usage of his heater (37.2%) and introduced an 86-87 MPH slider that he threw 13% of the time. His new offering created a deadly 40.6% whiff rate and became the best strikeout pitch in his arsenal. This explains the leap from a 22.6% K rate with Texas to an elite 31.1% K rate in KC.

Despite Ragans’ brilliance in the second half of 2023, there are a few questions that remain about his breakout. His career high in innings pitched came in 2022, where he logged 144 and ⅔ IPs across all levels. He failed to reach that mark in 2023 coming in at 124 and ⅓ IPs across all levels, primarily due to his RP status during the first half of the season. Time will tell if he is able to maintain a full starter’s workload in 2024 and if his newfound success last season will carry over into next year. That being said, he clocks in ranked 174th (38th SP) in ESPN’s early H2H rotisserie rankings and could end up being a steal late in the draft. His RP/SP status could also add an extra level of appeal to some league formats.

2. Michael King, 28, RHP, SDP

King will make the move to San Diego’s rotation in 2024 as part of their return in the Juan Soto deal. While he has spent the majority of his career as a high leverage reliever, the Yankees gave him a shot as a starter towards the end of 2023 and the results were impressive. From August 24th onwards, King made 8 appearances out of the rotation and pitched to a brilliant 1.87 ERA with a 48/9 K-to-BB ratio across 38 and ⅓ innings. San Diego seemingly loved what they saw and insisted King be part of the package for Soto.

King relies on a 4 pitch mix featuring a fastball (94.8 MPH), sinker (94.1 MPH), changeup (87.3 MPH), and sweeper (81.9 MPH). His repertoire led to a 2.75 ERA across 49 games (9 starts) and an exceptional 29.5% K rate. While these stats, particularly the K rate, look outstanding on paper, King has never come close to a full starters workload and barely eclipsed the 100 inning threshold for the first time in his big league career in 2023 (104 and ⅓ innings).

While he projects to begin the season in San Diego’s rotation, he will likely see some of these numbers regress, especially towards the end of the season. With multiple years of team control remaining, the Padres may also opt to limit his workload as he completes the transition to a starting pitcher over the course of a full season. That being said, the potential is real and King could prove to be a steal as he is currently listed as the 193th best player (42nd best SP) on ESPN’s early list of fantasy players for the rotisserie categories format. His SP/RP eligibility could also provide an added boost depending on league format. Feel confident taking a flier on King in the later rounds to see what he can do out of a rotation over the course of a full season.

3. Taj Bradley, 22, RHP, TBR

Taj Bradley broke into Tampa Bay’s rotation for the first time in 2023 and spent the majority of the season splitting time between the bigs and Durham, Tampa Bay’s AAA affiliate. He came highly regarded, ranking as high as 21 on MLB.com’s top prospect rankings after dominating AA in 2022 (1.70 ERA across 74 and ⅓ innings). While his stock took a hit due to some ugly surface level stats in his first taste of the bigs (5.59 ERA across 104 and ⅔ innings), his underlying metrics painted a different picture and showed strong signs of improvement going forward.

Bradley showed a strong strikeout potential during his time in the minors, but the dropoff in K rate between AA and AAA (30.9% -> 21.5%) raised some questions about how his stuff would translate at the big league level. Those questions were answered in 2023 as Bradley posted a 28% K rate in his extended look in the bigs, ranking 15th across all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.

While his 5.59 ERA was unsightly, his 3.83 xFIP pointed to some bad luck on his side. He also saw his ERA balloon from 3.86 to 5.67 across a disastrous 6 start stretch that led to a demotion in late July. Home runs were a major problem for Bradley, allowing a whopping 23 during the 2023 season. 13 of those came on his fastball, which hitters mashed to a .277 BA and .559 SLG. He allowed only 3 HRs on his offspeed offerings, which hitters could only manage a sub .200 BA against.

His changeup, which is traditionally known as one of the most difficult pitches to master, was his best offering - hitters batted .190 against it with a massive 41% K rate. While Bradley certainly needs some fine tuning and development before achieving a true breakout, the tools are all there and the Rays pitching lab is arguably the best in the business. Look to give Bradley a flier in the late rounds as his poor surface level stats will lead to him being forgotten in most formats (300th in ESPN’s rotisserie categories ranking, 72nd SP).

4. Kyle Bradish, 27, RHP, BAL

Kyle Bradish flew under the radar in 2023, going undrafted in nearly all draft formats. Despite Bradish’s terrific 2023 season (2.83 ERA, 25% K Rate, 12th in FIP), he still lies quite low on early draft boards, ranking 113th (28th SP) on ESPN’s early look at rotisserie categories rankings).

Bradish’s excellent performance in 2023 was due largely in part to an astronomical improvement across his offspeed offerings. His fastball has never been too effective an offering, as hitters crushed it to the tune of a .321 BA and .539 SLG in 2022. The pitch took an even greater step back in 2023, as hitters posted a massive .366 BA and .602 SLG against it.

Bradish made a pivot to combat the lack of success, cutting his fastball usage from 48.8% in 2022 to 43.3% in 2023. He ticked up the usage of his slider and curveball in 2023, which became bonafide weapons. These offspeed pitches were solid in 2022, leading to a .212 and .233 BA against respectively, but soared to a feeble .168 and .142 BA against in 2023. This led to a whiff rate north of 30% for both offerings. This, coupled with an uptick in usage, allowed Bradish to see consistent success in 2023. If Bradish could improve his fastball in 2024, he would see new heights and possibly become a top 10 SP in the bigs.

5. Braxton Garrett, 26, LHP, MIA

Braxton Garrett had an interesting path to the bigs - he was drafted 7th overall by the Marlins in the 2016 draft and soared to a 43th best prospect ranking in the 2017 version of MLB.com’s annual list. His stock took a hit due to poor performance and injuries, leading to him falling off the list entirely in 2018. His brief taste of the bigs in 2020 and 2021 did not go according to planned - he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in both seasons and was mostly forgotten about and didn’t seem like a major component in Miami’s future plans. Garrett began showing promise over the next two seasons - his 3.58 ERA in an injury shortened 2022 earned him a spot in Miami’s 2023 rotation where he showed signs of a potential breakout going forward.

Garrett posted a 3.66 ERA across 159 and ⅔ innings pitched in 2023 with improvements to most of his underlying metrics. While his stuff certainly is not overpowering, 8th percentile in fastball velo and 8th percentile in hard hit rate, he posted an elite 4.4% BB rate which ranked in the 97th percentile across all of baseball. His terrific command allowed him to navigate around a lack of overpowering offerings - the difference between his 8th percentile fastball velo and 86th percentile fastball run value is the highest difference across all of baseball.

Not only did Garrett improve year to year, he also improved over the course of the 2023 season. Over the final 2 months of the season, Garrett posted a 2.85 ERA across 53 and ⅔ innings. He’ll look to keep that momentum heading into the 2024 season, where he is ranked as the 231st best player (52nd best SP) in ESPN’s early ranking of rotisserie categories players.